05 Aug, 14:00 UTCgrowthHigh
ISM Services PMI (Jul)
ACT 54.1EST 54.5PREV 54+32
54.1 vs 54.5 est, 54 prev; the PMI remains clearly above the 50 expansion threshold.
USD view-14
54.1 vs 54.5 est, 54 prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
05 Aug, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul)
ACT 70.3EST 65PREV 67.7-62
70.3 vs 65 est and 67.7 prev; prices are still very elevated and worsening.
USD view+33
70.3 vs 65 est, 67.7 prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
05 Aug, 14:00 UTClabourMedium
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Jul)
ACT 47.4EST 51.2PREV 51.2-32
47.4 vs 51.2 est and 51.2 prev; services employment weakened, leaving labour health softer.
USD view-32
47.4 vs 51.2 est, 51.2 prev; softer labour data weakens USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
05 Aug, 13:45 UTCgrowthHigh
S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)
ACT 54.6 PointsEST 53.6 PointsPREV 51.2 Points+40
54.6 Points vs 53.6 Points est, 51.2 Points prev; the PMI remains clearly above the 50 expansion threshold.
USD view+33
54.6 Points vs 53.6 Points est, 51.2 Points prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
05 Aug, 13:45 UTCgrowthMedium
S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul)
ACT 54.5 PointsEST 53.6 PointsPREV 51.9 Points+36
54.5 Points vs 53.6 Points est, 51.9 Points prev; the PMI remains clearly above the 50 expansion threshold.
USD view+20
54.5 Points vs 53.6 Points est, 51.9 Points prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
05 Aug, 12:15 UTClabourMedium-High
ADP Employment Change (Jul)
ACT 44KEST 70KPREV 95K-20
44K vs 70K est and 95K prev; hiring slowed, but jobs remain positive.
USD view-24
44K vs 70K est, 95K prev; softer labour data weakens USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Aug, 15:10 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 5.9%EST 6.2%PREV 6.2%+38
5.9% vs 6.2% est, 6.2% prev; growth stays strong but eases slightly.
USD view-32
5.9% vs 6.2% est, 6.2% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Aug, 14:00 UTClabourHigh
JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)
ACT 7.359MEST 7.4MPREV 7.537M+8
7.359M was below 7.4M est and 7.537M prev; openings eased slightly but stay solid.
USD view-6
7.359M vs 7.4M est, 7.537M prev; softer labour data weakens USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Aug, 14:00 UTCgrowthMedium
Factory Orders MoM (Jun)
ACT -0.3%EST 0.2%PREV -1.1%-22
-0.3% vs 0.2% est and -1.1% prev; factory orders still signal weak manufacturing demand.
USD view-32
-0.3% vs 0.2% est, -1.1% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Aug, 12:30 UTCexternalMedium-Low
Balance of Trade (Jun)
ACT -73.3BEST -73BPREV -77.6B-18
-73.3B vs -73B est and -77.6B prev; the deficit is slightly wider and still weak.
USD view-2
-73.3B vs -73B est, -77.6B prev; a worse external surprise weakens USD; no acute-risk offset.
03 Aug, 15:30 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 6.2%EST 5%PREV 5%+55
6.2% vs 5.0% est and 5.0% prev; GDPNow implies stronger Q3 growth momentum.
USD view+50
6.2% vs 5% est, 5% prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
03 Aug, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul)
ACT 71.1EST 70.3PREV 73-58
71.1 vs 70.3 est and 73 prev; prices remain extremely elevated, though slightly cooler.
USD view+9
71.1 vs 70.3 est, 73 prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
03 Aug, 14:00 UTCgrowthHigh
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
ACT 55.6EST 54PREV 53.3+48
55.6 vs 54 est, 53.3 prev; the PMI remains clearly above the 50 expansion threshold.
USD view+38
55.6 vs 54 est, 53.3 prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
03 Aug, 14:00 UTClabourMedium
ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul)
ACT 52.8EST 49.8PREV 49.7+26
52.8 vs 49.8 est and 49.7 prev; employment improved back into expansion and labor health is better.
USD view+34
52.8 vs 49.8 est, 49.7 prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
03 Aug, 13:45 UTCgrowthMedium
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
ACT 53.9 PointsEST 53.8 PointsPREV 53.9 Points+28
53.9 Points vs 53.8 Points est, 53.9 Points prev; the PMI remains clearly above the 50 expansion threshold.
USD view+8
53.9 Points vs 53.8 Points est, 53.9 Points prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
31 Jul, 14:00 UTCconsumerMedium
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)
ACT 55.2EST 54PREV 49.5+18
55.2 vs 54 est and 49.5 prev; sentiment improved and remains above median.
USD view+18
55.2 vs 54 est, 49.5 prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
31 Jul, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)
ACT 3.3%EST 3.3%PREV 3.3%-22
3.3% matched 3.3% est and prev; expectations stay elevated, limiting price-stability health.
USD view0
3.3% matched 3.3% est and prev; no new macro repricing, so USD impulse is neutral.
31 Jul, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)
ACT 4.2%EST 4.2%PREV 4.6%-25
4.2% matched estimate and fell from 4.6%; expectations eased but stay high.
USD view0
4.2% matched 4.2% est and was flat vs 4.6%; no new USD repricing from the print.
31 Jul, 13:45 UTCgrowthMedium
Chicago PMI (Jul)
ACT 57.6EST 56PREV 56.7+34
57.6 vs 56 est and 56.7 prev; expansion is firmer and still well above contraction.
USD view+18
57.6 vs 56 est, 56.7 prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
31 Jul, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q2)
ACT 0.9%EST 0.8%PREV 0.9%-14
0.9% vs 0.8% est and 0.9% prev; labour cost growth stays elevated, but not worse.
USD view+14
0.9% vs 0.8% est, 0.9% prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
31 Jul, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Q2)
ACT 0.9%EST 0.7%PREV 0.8%-18
0.9% vs 0.7% est and 0.8% prev; wages are still elevated, but not sharply worsening.
USD view+18
0.9% vs 0.7% est, 0.8% prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
31 Jul, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ (Q2)
ACT 1%EST 1.1%PREV 1.2%+8
1.0% vs 1.1% est and 1.2% prev; benefits growth cooled modestly but stays elevated.
USD view-12
1% vs 1.1% est, 1.2% prev; softer labour data weakens USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 14:20 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 5%EST —PREV —+52
5% Q3 GDPNow signals strong expansion and broad momentum versus prior 3, 1.2, 1.3, 1.7, 1.7, 1.5.
USD view+38
5% GDPNow is a strong growth upside surprise; higher US growth supports USD, with no acute-risk channel.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium
Real Consumer Spending QoQ (Q2)
ACT 3.2%EST 0.4%PREV 0.5%+52
3.2% vs 0.4% est and 0.5% prev; real consumer demand is strong, though a bit exuberant.
USD view+55
3.2% vs 0.4% est, 0.5% prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium-High
Personal Spending MoM (Jun)
ACT 0.4%EST 0.2%PREV 0.4%+22
0.4% beat 0.2% est and matched 0.4% prev; household demand remains resilient.
USD view+18
0.4% vs 0.2% est, 0.4% prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium
Personal Income MoM (Jun)
ACT 0.2%EST 0.3%PREV 0.7%0
0.2% vs 0.3% est, 0.7% prev; slower income growth is mildly mixed for household demand.
USD view-14
0.2% vs 0.3% est, 0.7% prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)
ACT 3.7%EST 3.7%PREV 4.1%-58
3.7% vs 3.7% est, 4.1% prev; inflation remains clearly above the roughly 2% price-stability benchmark despite any improvement.
USD view0
3.7% matched estimate and 4.1% prev; no new macro surprise, so no material USD impulse.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)
ACT -0.1%EST -0.1%PREV 0.5%+8
-0.1% matched estimate and improved from 0.5%; price stability is better but not fully healthy.
USD view0
-0.1% matched estimate and 0.5% prev; no new macro repricing from the release itself.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTClabourMedium-High
Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25)
ACT 197KEST 200KPREV 188K+18
197K vs 200K est, 188K prev; initial claims remain consistent with a healthy labour market.
USD view+14
197K vs 200K est, 188K prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCinflationMedium
GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2)
ACT 6.3%EST 3.6%PREV 3.6%-72
6.3% vs 3.6% est, 3.6% prev; price pressure is far above a sustainable pace.
USD view+62
6.3% vs 3.6% est, 3.6% prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCgrowthHigh
GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
ACT 1.5%EST 2.1%PREV 2.1%-32
1.5% vs 2.1% est and 2.1% prev; growth slowed, but remains positive.
USD view-38
1.5% vs 2.1% est, 2.1% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCinflationVery-High
Core PCE Price Index YoY (Jun)
ACT 3.3%EST 3.3%PREV 3.4%-44
3.3% vs 3.3% est, 3.4% prev; inflation remains clearly above the roughly 2% price-stability benchmark despite any improvement.
USD view0
3.3% matched 3.3% est and 3.4% prev; expected inflation leaves no new USD repricing.
30 Jul, 12:30 UTCinflationVery-High
Core PCE Price Index MoM (Jun)
ACT 0.1%EST 0.2%PREV 0.3%+22
0.1% vs 0.2% est, 0.3% prev; the monthly inflation pace is consistent with sustainable price stability.
USD view-18
0.1% vs 0.2% est, 0.3% prev; softer inflation lowers rate expectations and weakens USD; no acute-risk offset.
29 Jul, 18:00 UTCmonetaryVery-High
Fed Interest Rate Decision
ACT 3.75%EST 3.75%PREV 3.75%+12
3.75% matched 3.75% est and prev; steady policy is broadly stable and predictable.
USD view0
3.75% matched 3.75% est and prev, so there is no new Fed repricing and no acute-risk channel.
28 Jul, 17:00 UTCmonetaryMedium-Low
M2 Money Supply (Jun)
ACT 23.15TEST 22.8TPREV 23.05T+18
23.15T vs 22.8T est and 23.05T prev; M2 is rising, but only modestly.
USD view+16
23.15T beat 22.8T and 23.05T; money growth was firmer, nudging USD via yields.
28 Jul, 16:00 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)
ACT 1.5%EST 1.6%PREV 1.6%+12
1.5% was below 1.6% est and 1.6% prev; growth is still positive but modestly softer.
USD view-4
1.5% vs 1.6% est, 1.6% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
28 Jul, 14:00 UTCconsumerHigh
CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)
ACT 90.8EST 92.4PREV 92.2-18
90.8 vs 92.4 est and 92.2 prev; confidence slipped and sits below its recent norm.
USD view-17
90.8 vs 92.4 est, 92.2 prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
28 Jul, 13:00 UTCconsumerMedium
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (May)
ACT 1.6%EST 1.3%PREV 1.2%+14
1.6% was above 1.3% est and 1.2% prev; home prices remain positive but not overheated.
USD view+18
1.6% vs 1.3% est, 1.2% prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
28 Jul, 12:30 UTCgrowthMedium
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM (Jun)
ACT -0.2%EST 0.3%PREV 0.2%-16
-0.2% vs 0.3% est and 0.2% prev; inventories fell and momentum softened.
USD view-18
-0.2% missed 0.3% and slipped from 0.2%; weaker stockbuilding lowers growth expectations and USD.
28 Jul, 12:30 UTCexternalMedium-Low
Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun)
ACT -101.5BEST -100BPREV -105.89B-30
-101.5B vs -100B est and -105.89B prev; the trade deficit remains wide, though it narrowed a bit.
USD view-9
-101.5B vs -100B est, -105.89B prev; a worse external surprise weakens USD; no acute-risk offset.