18 Sept, 14:00 UTCgrowthMedium
Leading Index MoM (Aug)
ACT -0.1%EST 0.1%PREV 0.2%-18
-0.1% vs 0.1% est, 0.2% prev; the leading index slipped and growth momentum weakened.
USD view-18
-0.1% vs 0.1% est, 0.2% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
18 Sept, 13:15 UTCgrowthMedium
Industrial Production MoM (Aug)
ACT 0%EST 0.3%PREV 0.2%0
0.0% vs 0.3% est, 0.2% prev; flat output is near stall and only mildly soft.
USD view-18
0% vs 0.3% est, 0.2% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
17 Sept, 14:00 UTCconsumerMedium
Pending Home Sales MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.3%EST 2%PREV -2.6%+14
0.3% vs 2.0% est and -2.6% prev; housing demand improved but remains soft.
USD view-16
0.3% vs 2% est, -2.6% prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
17 Sept, 13:50 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 5.1%EST 5.1%PREV 5.1%+48
5.1% matched 5.1% est and 5.1% prev; growth stays solid and sustainably above trend.
USD view0
5.1% matched 5.1% est and 5.1% prev; no new macro repricing, so the USD impulse is neutral.
17 Sept, 12:30 UTCgrowthMedium
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep)
ACT 37.8EST 30.5PREV 47.4+40
37.8 vs 30.5 est and 47.4 prev; strong regional growth stays healthy despite some cooling.
USD view+24
37.8 vs 30.5 est, 47.4 prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
17 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium-High
Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/12)
ACT 196KEST 208KPREV 206K+18
196K vs 208K est, 206K prev; initial claims remain consistent with a healthy labour market.
USD view+22
196K vs 208K est, 206K prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
17 Sept, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium
Housing Starts (Aug)
ACT 1.275MEST 1.31MPREV 1.309M-18
1.275M vs 1.31M est and 1.309M prev; starts slipped, but housing demand is only mildly softer.
USD view-18
1.275M vs 1.31M est, 1.309M prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
17 Sept, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium-High
Building Permits (Aug)
ACT 1.394MEST 1.41MPREV 1.433M+18
1.394M vs 1.41M est and 1.433M prev; permits eased slightly, but housing demand stays resilient.
USD view-18
1.394M vs 1.41M est, 1.433M prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryMedium
Interest Rate Projection - Longer
ACT 3.2%EST —PREV 3.1%-12
3.2% vs 3.1% prev; the higher projected rate is mildly less policy-stable.
USD view+8
3.2% vs 3.1% prev implies slightly firmer Fed pricing; no separate acute-risk channel.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryMedium
Interest Rate Projection - Current
ACT 4.1%EST —PREV 3.8%-22
4.1% vs 3.8% prev, above the prior median; policy looks slightly less stable.
USD view+18
4.1% vs 3.8% prev signals firmer no-cut pricing and higher yields; no acute-risk channel.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryMedium
Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr
ACT 3.6%EST —PREV 3.1%-18
3.6% vs 3.1% prev; higher projected rates imply less policy stability and tighter conditions.
USD view+14
3.6% vs 3.1% prev implies firmer yield repricing and higher real-rate support for USD.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryMedium
Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr
ACT 3.9%EST —PREV 3.4%-18
3.9% vs 3.4% prev; a higher second-year rate path is less stable and more restrictive.
USD view+22
3.9% vs 3.4% prev; higher rate expectations lift USD modestly, with no acute-risk channel.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryMedium
Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr
ACT 4.1%EST —PREV 3.6%-18
4.1% vs 3.6% prev; a higher projected rate path is less stable and more restrictive.
USD view+14
4.1% vs 3.6% prev implies firmer policy expectations, lifting USD via rates; no acute-risk offset.
16 Sept, 18:00 UTCmonetaryVery-High
Fed Interest Rate Decision
ACT 4%EST 4%PREV 3.75%0
4.00% matched 4.00% est and rose from 3.75%; policy looks steady and predictable.
USD view0
4.00% matched 4.00% est and 3.75% prev; no new repricing, so no material USD impulse.
16 Sept, 16:00 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 5.1%EST 4.4%PREV 4.4%+50
5.1% vs 4.4% est and 4.4% prev; higher Q3 growth signals stronger activity and momentum.
USD view+35
5.1% vs 4.4% est, 4.4% prev; stronger activity supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
16 Sept, 14:00 UTCgrowthMedium
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM (Jul)
ACT 0.7%EST 0.7%PREV -0.5%+12
0.7% matched estimate and rebounded from -0.5%; retail inventories are improving modestly.
USD view0
0.7% matched 0.7% est and was flat vs prior contextually; no material USD repricing.
16 Sept, 12:30 UTCconsumerHigh
Retail Sales MoM (Aug)
ACT 1.2%EST 0.8%PREV -0.6%+32
1.2% vs 0.8% est, -0.6% prev; demand rebounded strongly and sits at a high percentile.
USD view+34
1.2% vs 0.8% est, -0.6% prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
16 Sept, 12:30 UTCconsumerMedium
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Aug)
ACT 1.4%EST 0.5%PREV -0.2%+38
1.4% beat 0.5% est and -0.2% prev; ex-autos demand is expanding strongly.
USD view+40
1.4% vs 0.5% est, -0.2% prev; stronger demand supports USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
16 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationMedium
Export Prices MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.6%EST 0.5%PREV -1.4%-32
0.6% vs 0.5% est, -1.4% prev; export prices rebounded, but still signal firm inflation.
USD view+9
0.6% vs 0.5% est, -1.4% prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
15 Sept, 12:30 UTCgrowthMedium
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep)
ACT 7.6EST 14.75PREV 20.6+16
7.6 vs 14.75 est and 20.6 prev; growth is positive but momentum has cooled sharply.
USD view-24
7.6 vs 14.75 est, 20.6 prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 14:00 UTCconsumerMedium
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep)
ACT 47.8EST 51PREV 51.7-38
47.8 vs 51 est and 51.7 prev; sentiment fell to a very weak 8.3rd percentile.
USD view-32
47.8 vs 51 est, 51.7 prev; weaker demand weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep)
ACT 3.4%EST 3.2%PREV 3.3%-32
3.4% vs 3.2% est, 3.3% prev; expectations rose and stay too high for price stability.
USD view+18
3.4% vs 3.2% est, 3.3% prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 14:00 UTCinflationMedium
Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep)
ACT 4.6%EST 4.2%PREV 4%-52
4.6% vs 4.2% est, 4.0% prev; higher 1Y inflation expectations worsen price-stability health.
USD view+38
4.6% vs 4.2% est, 4% prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
Inflation Rate (Aug)
ACT 334.98EST 334.85PREV 333.92-55
334.98 vs 334.85 est and 333.92 prev; inflation is still rising and price pressure remains unhealthy.
USD view+9
334.98 vs 334.85 est, 333.92 prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationVery-High
Core CPI YoY (Aug)
ACT 2.4%EST 2.4%PREV 2.5%+28
2.4% vs 2.4% est, 2.5% prev; inflation is close to the roughly 2% price-stability benchmark.
USD view0
2.4% matched 2.4% est and fell from 2.5%; no new macro repricing, so no acute-risk channel.
11 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationVery-High
Core CPI MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.3%EST 0.2%PREV 0.2%+22
0.3% vs 0.2% est, 0.2% prev; the monthly inflation pace is consistent with sustainable price stability.
USD view+18
0.3% vs 0.2% est, 0.2% prev; hotter inflation raises rate expectations and supports USD; no acute-risk offset.
11 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
CPI YoY (Aug)
ACT 3.4%EST 3.4%PREV 3.4%-44
3.4% vs 3.4% est, 3.4% prev; inflation remains clearly above the roughly 2% price-stability benchmark despite any improvement.
USD view0
3.4% matched 3.4% est and 3.4% prev, so there is no new USD repricing.
11 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
CPI MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.4%EST 0.4%PREV 0.1%-38
0.4% matched estimate but rose from 0.1%; inflation is still too hot for price stability.
USD view0
0.4% matched 0.4% est and 0.1% prev; no new macro repricing from the release.
10 Sept, 15:30 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 4.4%EST 4.7%PREV 4.7%+28
4.4% vs 4.7% est and 4.7% prev; growth stays solid though a bit slower.
USD view-18
4.4% vs 4.7% est, 4.7% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
10 Sept, 14:00 UTCconsumerMedium
Existing Home Sales (Aug)
ACT 3.98MEST 3.98MPREV 4.06M-14
3.98M matched 3.98M est but fell from 4.06M; housing demand is softer, not collapsing.
USD view0
3.98M matched 3.98M est and 4.06M prev; no material macro repricing from the print.
10 Sept, 13:20 UTCgrowthMedium
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
ACT 4.4%EST 4.7%PREV 4.7%+34
4.4% vs 4.7% est and 4.7% prev; growth is still solid, just less strong.
USD view-24
4.4% vs 4.7% est, 4.7% prev; weaker activity weakens USD via growth/rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
10 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationHigh
Producer Price Index MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.4%EST 0.4%PREV 0.1%-42
0.4% matched estimate but rose from 0.1%; price pressure is still too hot.
USD view0
0.4% matched 0.4% est and 0.1% prev; no new macro repricing from the release.
10 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium-High
Initial Jobless Claims (Sep/05)
ACT 206KEST 205KPREV 207K+4
206K vs 205K est, 207K prev; initial claims remain consistent with a healthy labour market.
USD view-4
206K vs 205K est, 207K prev; softer labour data weakens USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
10 Sept, 12:30 UTCinflationMedium
Core PPI MoM (Aug)
ACT 0.2%EST 0.3%PREV 0.3%+18
0.2% undershot 0.3% est and matched the prior median; price pressure is easing modestly.
USD view-18
0.2% vs 0.3% est, 0.3% prev; softer inflation lowers rate expectations and weakens USD; no acute-risk offset.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourHigh
Unemployment Rate (Aug)
ACT 4.1%EST 4.1%PREV 4.1%+12
4.1% vs 4.1% est, 4.1% prev; headline unemployment is within a healthy range.
USD view0
4.1% matched estimate and previous, so there is no material new USD repricing.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
U-6 Unemployment Rate (Aug)
ACT 7.7%EST 8%PREV 7.9%+18
7.7% vs 8% est, 7.9% prev; broad underemployment is within a healthy range.
USD view+16
7.7% vs 8% est, 7.9% prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Participation Rate (Aug)
ACT 61.6%EST 61.4%PREV 61.4%+14
61.6% vs 61.4% est and 61.4% prev; participation edged up in a healthy labour trend.
USD view+18
61.6% vs 61.4% est, 61.4% prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Aug)
ACT 127KEST 45KPREV 30K+28
127K vs 45K est and 30K prev; private payroll growth improved and supports labour health.
USD view+34
127K vs 45K est, 30K prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourVery-High
Non Farm Payrolls (Aug)
ACT 162KEST 56KPREV -23K+32
162K vs 56K est, -23K prev; payroll growth rebounded and labor health improved.
USD view+40
162K vs 56K est, -23K prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.
04 Sept, 12:30 UTClabourMedium
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Aug)
ACT 3.1%EST 3%PREV 3.2%+12
3.1% vs 3.0% est, 3.2% prev; wage growth is near sustainable, with slight cooling.
USD view+14
3.1% vs 3% est, 3.2% prev; firmer labour data supports USD via rate expectations; no acute-risk offset.