Live track record

Live progress log

Everything below is published as it happens, including the flat months and the losing ones. Backtest results are labelled as backtests; live results are labelled as live. Nothing here is a forecast, and past results never guarantee future performance.

1. 11 August 2026In progress

   Starting the live forward test

   The research phase is finished and the system is moving to a live forward test on a funded-account evaluation. From here every month gets an entry on this page — the good ones and the bad ones — so there is a public record that predates any sales.

   The system trades EUR/USD around scheduled economic releases only. It is deliberately low-frequency: the six-year research sample averaged between two and five trades per month, and the most recent stretch sat at the low end of that. Expect long quiet periods. A month with no trades is a normal outcome, not a fault.

   I am publishing the forward test before opening sales because a backtest on its own is not evidence, and I would rather be judged on results I posted in advance than on results I selected afterwards.

2. 11 August 2026Recorded

   Research baseline — what the backtest actually says

   These are backtest figures across roughly six years of EUR/USD minute data, from May 2020 to July 2026, using the same three-setup ensemble the EA ships with. They are the baseline the live forward test above will be measured against.

   Two honest caveats. The simulation does not model commission or swap, and applies no spread on the trailing exit, so live results should land below these numbers rather than on them. And trade frequency has roughly halved across the sample, from about 4.7 per month in the earliest period to about 2.4 in the most recent — the edge per trade held up, but the number of opportunities did not.

   Backtest period

   6.2 years

   May 2020 – Jul 2026

   Closed trades

   280

   three setups combined

   Win rate

   77.1%

   backtest, before costs

   Profit factor

   3.40

   gross profit ÷ gross loss

   Worst losing streak

   4 trades

   full sample